Is AMD Doomed?
(Column) – We recently published our review of Intel’s Core Duo platform and confirmed that Intel has in fact leapt ahead. Quite logically, the performance results of the Core Duo prove, yet again, Intel’s superiority in the mobile segment. Intel has managed to fit in a billion transistors on a single 65nm microprocessor. Moreover, 45nm is already in the works and 65nm is passé. To give you an idea of transistor comparison, Smithfield has 230M in contrast to Presler’s 370M.
The thing I find most interesting in this battle of silicon supremacy is just how unbelievably thick (or perhaps slow) AMD has been lately. For the entire life cycle of the Pentium 4 family, AMD was far ahead. The company made the best processors in terms of performance with cost efficiency in mind. However, it had a nice 1-1.5 years of time span where it could’ve evolved or innovated enough, but it didn’t. Granted that AMD is still leading the desktop and server markets in terms of performance, it’s not the point. The point is the lack of evolution and innovation from AMD.
You would think that if a company was dominating so thoroughly over the market leader, it would try to keep up the ante and release products (or upgrades) fast enough to keep Intel on its edge. This is where AMD has failed quite miserably. Once it launched its X2 series, it sat back and relaxed. Whereas AMD opened a plant (a logical and worthwhile step, by the way), Intel quietly gritted its teeth and went to work day and night to release a processor that would put it back in the reckoning. Come CES 2006 and everyone is talking about the Core Duo. Not only does it perform well, but the retail channels were soon welcomed with abundant supply after a month or so. What does that mean? Intel now has the chance to capture as much of the market share as it possibly can dominantly, while AMD would have to satisfy with second tier results. That’s what you get for being a latecomer.
It’s not like AMD hasn’t had the time. We’ve heard promises of a dual-core Turion for ages. In fact, the last time I heard, AMD was supposed to debut the dual-core Turion sometime in January, and as we now know, our expectations didn’t became a reality this past month. The important thing is, Intel has beaten AMD to notebook dual-cores, and more importantly, the notebooks with Core Duo processors are already shipping. This is exactly how you capture markets. Be the first one out and provide enough supply, so that everyone can purchase one. In a parallel context, ATI has already learned this lesson the hard way. {mospagebreak title=2. Continued…} Continued… Despite the successful launch of the Core Duo, is Intel sitting pretty on its laurels? No, not for one minute! Apart from all the launch programs for the 65nm platform, Intel has already started work on the next-gen. chips under the 45nm process. Obviously, mass production and commercialization will begin in 2007, or whenever Intel plans to transition to the new fabrication process.
Despite AMD’s carelessness, market reports stated that AMD has crossed the 20 percent mark a while back. Well, yeah, too little too late. If Yonah is any indication, Merom will outshine everything ever made, and to top it all, Intel is planning to not sell everything at a premium.
This is another interesting shift in strategy on Intel’s part. Traditionally, Intel has been the one charging a premium for its products, while a comparable or a better performer from AMD has been available for half the price. Surprisingly, the positions have changed. As Intel tries to gain back its lost image, AMD is charging a premium. Whatever happened to AMD’s "providing value to consumers" strategy? Related Articles: - Subscribe to CoolTechZone.com’s RSS Feed One last point that I find fascinating is that Intel has launched its 65nm on the notebook platform. Why? It could just be the development cycle, or perhaps it wanted to test the waters with its notebook offerings first. The point being, if it works in a notebook and delivers well on power, it will most certainly reduce power consumption in its desktop counterparts, though it’s not as simple architecturally.
Intel has suddenly come up with extremely competitive offerings and might end up upsetting AMD’s plans of gaining more marketshare, and thus expanding and increasing profitability. AMD’s stance on staying idle for 2006 and continuing to reap in benefits from its Athlon64 platform as Intel manages to keep up is a poor strategy. What AMD is doing is giving Intel the chance to catchup before the world’s second largest chipmaker counterattacks, which could prove to be a damning move.
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