Apple Tablet A $3 Billion Business for Apple

Another day, another analyst prediction. RBC Capital Markets Analyst Mike Abramsky believes Apple could add $2.8 billion to its bottom line in 2010 if it can sell 5 million units at $600 average price. This would add $.30 per share, or $5-$10, to lift the valuation.
On the low-end, as a niche product, he believes Apple could sell 1 million units at $800 average selling price for a total of $777 million added to its bottom line, or $.12 per share.

The estimates continue with a success story for Apple if the company priced it at $500. That would bring the total sales to 10 million units and add $4.2 billion for 2010, or $.42 per share.

He goes on to say that Apple will sell the tablet for $500-$700 unsubsidized, or $200-$300 with a subsidy. Apple could also reveal two models of the tablet, one with WiFi-only and the other with 3G and WiFi, similar to what it did with the iPhone and iPod Touch devices.

Clearly, there are plenty of things wrong with this estimate. There’s no way Apple will sell its tablet for $500 or below. The estimates of $800-$900 are more believable. The company just isn’t in the habit to produce cheaper electronics to gain market share. Furthermore, these sales estimates are guesses at best. Without knowing anything about the tablet, making such statements that are so broad, he’s bound to be right and get close to one of his three scenarios.

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